Coeur d’Alene, Skyview, Filer, Firth, Hagerman and Dietrich, the favorites, as far as I’m concerned, to win state championships in the six respective classifications at the girls state tournaments beginning today in the Treasure Valley.
The best thing about sports, though, the term “favorites” doesn’t mean a thing when the ball goes up in that opening tip. We’ve got 48 teams from every corner of the state and no one has a clue what to expect.
That’s awesome. But it doesn’t mean we can’t take a look at some of the opening-round matchups and at least do a little forecasting.
Highland (18-3) vs. No. 1 Rocky Mountain (22-1)
Reason for optimism: The Rams are really good. Maren Herrud is one of the most overlooked stars in Idaho. Herrud is the best pure scorer on a roster with a dynamic point guard, senior Makenzie Van Sickle, who can stroke it from the perimeter.
Timmie Bowie, Reece Bauer, Herrud, Van Sickle, Emily Hancock, they're all dangerous offensively. Senior Katie Denney, who never looks for her own shot, had 13 points in the district title game against Hillcrest. This is a hungry, underrated group.
Reason for pessimism: They're playing the No. 1 team in the state that was undefeated until Boise pulled the upset, 52-42, in the district tournament. Rocky Mountain responded from its lone loss by pounding Eagle 58-21 a few days later.
The Rams aren't deep and for them to be an elite offense, they have to hit 3s. That's a dangerous thing to rely on.
No. 4 Century (17-5) vs. No. 5 Middleton (16-7)
Reason for optimism: Century doesn't have a starter who’s a senior, but it's a group with experience in the state setting. In a tournament with its own ebbs and flows, having players like Sarah Holt and Henny Hearn, two starters in last year's state runner-up team, is a big boon.
Another reason for optimism is that Century is a defensive team first. They value playing well on that side of the floor. It's how the D-backs define themselves. A style like that translates to the state tournament where it's going to be a half-court game that rewards teams who can execute their offensive sets and stop others from not executing theirs.
Reason for pessimism: Before this season, Middleton had won the last five District 3 championships. The Vikings are a program accustomed to winning. It's a really tough first-round opponent for Century.
Middleton's seven losses are to Rocky Mountain and Centennial, both good 5A teams, and they've lost to No. 1 Skyview three times and to Nampa and Bishop Kelly once apiece.
Pocatello (13-10) vs. Sandpoint (13-7)
Reason for optimism: Pocatello’s zone is non-traditional with its aggressive nature. In a tournament setting — when there's little time to prepare after the opening round — teams are going to struggle to handle it. And I mean really, really struggle.
Reason for pessimism: Poky is good in the post, but a player like Century’s Hearn (Hearn = size + skill) is a really tough matchup for the Indians. There's more Henny Hearn's at state. Sandpoint isn’t one of those teams that has a Hearn, but Pocatello is bound to run into a couple in the next few days.
The Indians can flat out struggle to score at times. I don't know why. They have capable shooters and post players they can go to if perimeter shots aren't falling. But sometimes it doesn't matter. They go stone cold.
Snake River (13-9) vs. Timberlake (16-8)
Reason for optimism: The Panthers are at their best when the defense is getting stops and turnovers and they're getting into the open court, scoring quickly in transition and in the moments before an opposing defense sets up.
Rich Dunn is a really, really good coach. He has three seniors back from last year's title team and they'll all play well in the state tournament setting. Brylie Bair is a load down low. She might have been the best player in the state title game a year ago when the Panthers knocked off Filer.
Reason for pessimism: The Panthers just don't have an elite point guard this year, and that's hurt their production in the half-court setting. Dunn is relying on some freshmen and sophomores — albeit very good ones — to play big minutes. I have no idea what to expect from them.
And like Pocatello, Snake can fall into a funk offensively. In the Panthers’ 13 wins, they averaged 48 points a game. In the nine losses, the scoring average drops to 35.
No. 5 Soda Springs (17-6) vs. No. 1 Ririe (20-4)
Reason for optimism: Soda Springs began the season 1-4. After a loss to Sky View, Utah, Dec. 13, the Cardinals ripped off 14 of their next 15. Granted, a lot of those wins came against the likes of Aberdeen and West Side — two teams that struggled this season — but the run also included victories over Snake River (twice), Marsh Valley and 4A Preston.
Soda isn't very big, but in head coach Wade Schvaneveldt's system the Cardinals crank up the defensive pressure. Any team that doesn't have great guard play is going to struggle with turnovers, and that's when Soda thrives.
Extra note: Soda has been to the state tournament 12 straight years. Schvaneveldt has been the head man in Soda for 12 years. Not a coincidence.
Reason for pessimism: The Cardinals have a tough, tough draw with Ririe, a team that rolled through its regular season in the toughest conference in the state until the district tournament.
Point guard Dakota Siepert is hobbled again with a knee injury — Siepert missed most of last season with a torn ACL — though I do expect her to play.
Soda hasn't played since Feb. 10. The Cardinals will have had 10 days off by tipoff with Ririe. In one sense that's a good thing because they were a little beat up, but that’s a long time to sit around and wait for the biggest games of the season.
No. 3 Firth (18-5) vs. No. 4 New Plymouth (18-4)
Reason for optimism: Firth had a stretch where it went 2-3 right after Christmas break. The Cougars were playing good teams like Teton (a 3A state qualifier), West Jefferson on the road and Ririe.
But after an eight-point loss at home to Ririe, Firth has won its last seven, holding opponents to 38.7 points a game. A team from the Nuclear Conference has won the 2A state title six of the past eight seasons.
Reason for pessimism: None. Firth has seven seniors, four juniors and a lanky team that clamps down defensively. The Cougars are playing better than anybody at the 2A level. They're the clear favorite going into the tournament. Will the favorite win? No idea.
No. 4 Grace (16-7) vs. Notus (13-10)
Reason for optimism: Grace reached its district title game and then came excruciatingly close to upsetting Hagerman, losing 52-49.
Twenty fours hours later, the Grizzlies were upset by Challis 42-39 in the second-place game, a team they had beaten 58-36 and 57-33 earlier in the season.
Luckily for Grace, there was one more opportunity — a play-in game with Idaho City where the Grizz cruised to a 22-point win.
That Idaho City team played Notus this year and Notus won by three. I have no doubt that the Pirates are a fine team but it looks like Grace lucked out with the scheduling gods.
Reason for pessimism: I haven't seen Grace in person but in talking with their coach Kevin Smith after losses, it sounds like his team is hit or miss defensively. Really, though, the Grizzlies are in a great spot. A win and they might even have another shot at district-foe Hagerman in the semifinals.
No. 2 Rockland (20-2) vs. No. 4 Kendrick (18-6)
Reason for optimism: Savanah Farr might be the best player in the 1A DII tournament, and the Bulldogs have girls up and down the roster who all picked up experience on last year's team that lost to Mackay in the third-place game.
Reason for pessimism: Kendrick is no easy first-round foe. I watched the Tigers defeat Rockland 45-33 in the semifinals last season. Honestly, I don't know a thing about the 2014 version of Kendrick but I have to imagine they still possess great guard play.
The real question is whether Kendrick has anyone who can match up with Farr inside. Mackay and North Gem — just about the only teams other than 2A Aberdeen to give the Bulldogs a game in their 17-game winning streak — found ways to slow her down.
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