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Let’s stop wasting time because there’s a lot to go over. Without further ado.
1. Weber State 15-9, 12-4
Last ranking: No. 1
Postseason prognosis: They’re going. The question is whether they’ll host.
Last week the Wildcats played three games away from home, losing to Idaho State (78-75, OT) and Montana (68-57) but Weber State picked up a huge win at Montana State (86-68).
With two weeks left in the regular season, the Wildcats boast a two-game lead over second-place Northern Colorado. Both UNC and WSU host a couple games before finishing on the road.
Barring a Wildcat collapse, Ogden, Utah, is your 2014 host of the Big Sky men’s basketball championship.
2. Sacramento State 13-12, 9-7
Last ranking: No. 4
Postseason prognosis: Favorable
The hottest team in the Big Sky held off North Dakota 71-65 and pounded Northern Colorado 79-58.
Sacramento State has won seven of its last eight and is on the verge of qualifying for its first Big Sky postseason tournament since 2006. The committee (of one) recognizes that of those seven wins, six have been at home in sunny northern California.
Less than a month ago, the Hornets were 2-6 and these rankings had them all the way down at No. 10. What has sparked the change? We can only imagine head coach Brian Katz read his team this passage from our rankings column Jan. 22.
“The Hornets lost to Portland State 68-64 in overtime and beat Eastern Washington 75-64.
Taking out the Eagles saved Sacramento State’s season. Falling to 1-5 in the league might have been too big of a hole to clamber out of.
But considering 670 fans were at Sacramento’s game last Saturday, most Hornet fans have already given up.”
Hey, we’re always happy to help.
(We keep waiting for Southern Utah’s Nick Robinson to read off a couple sections to his young guys.)
3. Montana 14-11, 9-7
Last ranking: No. 2
Postseason prognosis: What would a Big Sky tournament be without Montana?
In what might have been their best game of the season the Grizzlies whipped Weber State 68-57 and then snuck past Idaho State 62-61.
Montana head coach Wayne Tinkle is not going to be the Big Sky coach of the year. That honor is likely going to Randy Rahe at Weber State or B.J. Hill at Northern Colorado. And we’re fine with that. But think about what Tinkle has done.
Montana has talent, sure, but the Grizzlies are in a tie for third place with practically no inside game. They can’t rebound or protect the rim. Yet UM — with Southern Utah and Montana State visiting Missoula, Mont., this week — is nearly guaranteed a playoff spot. And no one wants to deal with Tinkle, senior Kareem Jamar and sharpshooting Montana in the postseason.
4. Northern Colorado 16-9, 10-6
Last ranking: No. 8
Postseason prognosis: Excellent
Northern Colorado scorched Northern Arizona with 11 3-pointers as the Bears cruised past NAU 74-59. But just as good as UNC was in Flagstaff, Ariz., it was equally as bad at Sacramento State, shooting 31 percent and losing by 21 (79-58).
The Bears continue to impress at home with an 8-0 Big Sky record, but they disappoint once again with a 2-6 record on the road. If UNC could just translate its success in Greeley, Colo., to games elsewhere, they’d be right in position with Weber State to claim the postseason’s No. 1 seed.
(By the way, Bengal fans, you are all Bear fans this week. UNC hosts both Eastern Washington and Portland State. ISU’s postseason chances take a bump if Northern Colorado wins each.)
5. North Dakota 12-14, 9-7
Last ranking: No. 3
Postseason prognosis: Excellent
The mascot-less traveled to Sacramento State (a 71-65 loss) and Northern Arizona (a 75-63 victory).
With three dates at home left, North Dakota has the most games at home remaining in the league, and they’re lone road matchup is with Southern Utah.
It all means that not only is North Dakota is position to reach the Big Sky tournament but UND has a great shot at the No. 2 seed.
6. Portland State 13-12, 8-8
Last ranking: No. 5
Postseason prognosis: Despite two recent wins, still not good.
Portland State snapped a four-game slide with a 86-79 victory at Southern Utah and a 87-76 win at Eastern Washington.
Let’s be real here. Most of us — OK, maybe it was just the committee (of one) — had written off Portland State’s postseason aspirations after they lost back-to-back home games a couple weeks back, losses that dropped the Vikings into 10th place of the league standings. We never imagined PSU would fight through a four-game road trip and come out the other side alive.
Once again, we’re shown to know absolutely nothing. But winning at SUU and EWU is one thing, picking up a couple more Ws at North Dakota (Thursday) and Northern Colorado (Saturday) would be the surprise of the year.
7. Eastern Washington 13-14, 8-8
Last ranking: No. 6
Postseason prognosis: Uh, who the heck knows?
Eastern Washington traveled to Southern Utah and downed the T-birds 85-74 and then lost at home Monday night to Portland State 87-76.
The loss to PSU is just inexcusable for the Eagles. The Vikings poured in 11 3-pointers and perimeter shooting abandoned Eastern Washington (EWU shot 4 for 15 from 3).
It’s a defeat that could spell disaster for the Eagles moving forward. Like Portland State, they travel to UND and UNC before hosting Idaho State and Weber State.
8. Montana State 13-14, 8-8
Last ranking: No. 10
Postseason prognosis: The committee (of one) dares not to guess.
In snowy Bozeman, Mont., Montana State beat Idaho State 66-60 and lost to Weber State 86-68.
The Bobcats are a complete mystery to the committee (of one). At times they’ll look like a title contender (see: wins at North Dakota, Portland State and vs. Northern Colorado). But then there are games when Montana State struggles to score and looks like more like a bunch of talented individuals running around on a court like they have no clue how to play together.
Montana State has one remaining game at home Thursday versus Southern Utah. Then the ’Cats are on the road at Montana, Northern Arizona and Sacramento State, all in the same week. We’re inclined to believe MSU is in serious danger to miss the postseason, but who knows with this team.
9. Idaho State 10-15, 7-9
Last ranking: No. 9
Postseason prognosis: Highly questionable
The Bengals outlasted Weber State 78-75 in overtime in Pocatello and then lost at Montana State (66-60) and Montana (62-61).
Other than Southern Utah, Idaho State has the worst record away from home in the conference at 1-7, and that, over just about anything else, is why the Bengals are in 10th place.
They lost by four to North Dakota, seven at Northern Colorado, six to Weber State, Sacramento State and Montana State, two to Northern Arizona and by one to Montana.
No team has played in more close games than ISU. In contests decided by nine points or less, Idaho State is 4-13. So in the final two weeks of the regular season, the committee (of one) knows the Bengals are going to play in four close games — that almost seems like a given. The real question is whether they can find a way to win three of those, because 10 feels like the magical number to make the tourney.
10. Northern Arizona 11-16, 8-8
Last ranking: No. 7
Postseason prognosis: Shaky
Northern Arizona lost two crucial home games to Northern Colorado, 74-59, and North Dakota, 75-63.
Head coach Jack Murphy made an interesting choice against UNC and UND. The second-year Lumberjack head man shook up his starting lineup, starting freshmen Kris Yanku and Ako Kaluna in place of junior Quinton Upshur and senior Max Jacobsen. When Upshur and Jacobsen entered off the bench a few minutes into the game against Northern Colorado, NAU trailed 15-2.
Murphy wanted an injection of energy and instead stumbled into a double-digit hole the Lumberjacks never fought out of. Just how extreme was the choice to bring Upshur and Jacobsen off the bench? They had started every game this year and they are the ’Jacks’ two leading scorers.
It’s easy to look back now and question the decision, of course. At this point, though, the committee is more interested to see if Murphy will continue to start his two freshmen or revert back to the lineup that had NAU at 8-6 in the conference standings.
11. Southern Utah 1-24, 0-16
Last ranking: No. 11
Postseason prognosis: This patient flatlined about two months back.
Southern Utah ended a four-game home stand with a 86-79 loss to Portland State and a 85-74 defeat to Eastern Washington.
The Thunderbirds head to Montana State and Montana this week and it continues to feel like they’re going to ruin somebody’s season in a year when the standings from second to 10th are so condensed.
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