Sunday, October 20, 2013

Breaking down the 2A 5th District playoff race

Scary movies give me nightmares, and if I’m being honest, I cover my eyes anytime a show flashes to a surgery scene or there’s a slight chance of a gross-out factor.

Yeah, I’m a wimp. My wife tells me so.

Considering my aversion for blood of any kind — with the exception of a Vulcan’s green blood from “Star Trek” — Halloween isn’t my favorite holiday. Christmas, New Year’s, the Fourth of July, shoot, even Valentine’s Day are times of happiness and joy.

Then there’s Halloween where we celebrate things that go bump in the night.

I don’t get it.

But I have to say, if you spend any time covering high school sports in Idaho, this has to be one of the best times of the year, even if that nasty red stuff is splashed over everything, because we’re 10 days away from the 2A classification kicking off the high school playoffs.

And in the 2A 5th District, with one weekend left in the regular season, we have no idea which three teams will reach the postseason.
 
   Here are the current 2A South East Idaho standings.    1 West Side 2-0, 6-1
    2 Aberdeen 1-1, 5-2
    3 Soda Springs 1-1, 5-2
    4 Malad 0-2, 2-5

    This week's games are both Thursday night: Malad at Aberdeen, 7 p.m. and Soda Springs at West Side, 7 p.m.
    Here are the various scenarios and what they could mean depending on who wins.

    West Side beats Soda Springs
    Aberdeen beats Malad
    Playoff seeding would go like ...
    1 West Side 3-0
    2 Aberdeen 2-1
    3 Soda 1-2
    4 Malad 0-3

    West Side beats Soda Springs ... but ...
    Malad beats Aberdeen
    Playoff seeding would go like ...
    1 West Side 3-0
    2 Aberdeen, Soda, Malad all 1-2

    Soda Springs beats West Side
    Aberdeen beats Malad
    Playoff seeding would go like ...
    1 West Side, Soda, Aberdeen all 2-1
    4 Malad 0-3
   
    Soda Springs beats West Side ... but ...
    Malad beats Aberdeen
    1 Soda Springs 2-1
    2 West Side 2-1
    3 Malad 1-2
    4 Aberdeen 1-2


To wrap all that up, if home teams win Friday night (Aberdeen and West Side), West Side is the top seed from the district, Aberdeen goes in at No. 2 and Soda Springs grabs the final playoff spot. That’s the likeliest scenario. The Pirates have consistently been the best team in the 5th District since losing to Firth 24-12 the opening week of the season.

In district play, West Side has outscored its two opponents 79-34. Throw out the loss to Firth and the Pirates have outscored 2A opponents to the tune of 134-50 this season. Against the Tigers a week ago, the Pirate defense limited Aberdeen to less than two yards a carry and 105 total yards of offense.

Aberdeen, meanwhile, is 3-0 at home and the Tigers' offense that struggled mightily in Dayton faces a Malad team that gives up touchdowns in bunches (the Dragons allow 34.4 points per game).

But, if Malad's offense (28 ppg) gets going early and the Dragons win for the first time since Sept. 6 (and West Side takes care of Soda), then West Side is the No. 1 seed and there would be a three-way tie for second place between Malad, Soda and Aberdeen. This would lead to another Kansas City Playoff to determine which two football programs advance to the playoffs (the playoff would be Saturday at Marsh Valley High School).

The other scenario that creates a chaotic mess is if Soda Springs upsets West Side and Aberdeen takes care of Malad. Then there's another three-way tie, but it would be for the No. 1 seed. In that case they'd flip a coin to determine the seeding for the three postseason spots.

Finally, the scenario that's the most unlikely to happen, both road teams (and underdogs) win. If Soda takes out West Side and Malad beats Aberdeen, the Cardinals are the district's No. 1 seed, West Side is second and Malad slides in at No. 3.

The ultimate takeaway points here: West Side, Aberdeen and Soda Springs all control their own playoff destinies. If they win, they advance to the playoffs. Malad has to win and then reach the postseason through the Kansas City Playoff avenue or via a Cardinals upset.

The fact all these scenarios are still in play with one game left is why this is the best time of the year, even with ghouls and scary things prowling the night.

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