From North Dakota to Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington, just about everybody in the Big Sky Conference has pulled off a stunning upset one week and followed it up with a baffling loss the next. The up-and-down nature of the league has been a blast. We’re dreading the end.
Before we begin, notice that we’ve labeled a few sections of the rankings. Each mini-headline describes that area’s chances to reach the Big Sky tournament, a tourney Weber State will host March 13-15.
Without further ado.
The favorite to win it all
1. Weber State 16-10, 13-5
Last week: No. 1
Postseason predictor: With two games left, the Wildcats have already clinched the top seed.
At home, Weber State pulled away from Sacramento State 79-67 but then lost to Northern Arizona in overtime 73-71, snapping the Wildcats’ 27-game conference winning streak.
All season, the committee (of one) has raved that the combination of 6-foot-9 Joel Bolomboy and 6-10 Kyle Tresnak in the post is the foundation for the ’Cats’ success defending the 3 (no one in the conference is better) and protecting the rim.
Then Northern Arizona, off an impressive victory in Pocatello, shoots 50 percent from the perimeter last Saturday and outscores Weber 38-24 in the paint.
Despite the loss, the Wildcats are still one of two teams in the league to clinch a spot in the postseason and they’re guaranteed to host the Big Sky tournament.
In and battling for postseason positioning
2. North Dakota 15-14, 12-7
Last week: No. 5
Postseason predictor: UND is in and we see them grabbing the No. 2 spot. Winners of five straight, the mascot-less knocked off Portland State 83-73, Eastern Washington 69-67 and Northern Colorado 94-90 in frigid Grand Forks, N.D. To finish the regular season, North Dakota travels to Southern Utah Thursday.
North Dakota is a bit of a mystery to the committee (of one). Statistically, UND does two things well: offensive rebounding and steals. The mascot-less are third in the conference in offensive boards, grabbing 10.6 a game and first in steals (8.3 per game).
But in just about every other category, North Dakota is average-to-below average. Yet here they are at No. 2 in these rankings, and if UND takes care of the Thunderbirds Thursday, Montana has to win both of its remaining road games for the mascot-less not to enter the postseason tournament as the second seed.
3. Montana 16-11, 11-7
Last week: No. 3
Postseason predictor: With 11 wins, Montana is likely in already.
To end a four-game home stand, the Grizzlies clobbered Southern Utah 83-54 and beat Montana State (53-50) for the eighth straight time.
Montana’s scoring defense has steadily improved over the past couple months. At 68.6 points a game, the Griz trail only Idaho State (68.4 ppg) and Weber State (66.0 ppg). Montana still has issues rebounding the basketball and the committee (of one) isn’t convinced the interior of that Grizzly defense won’t be an issue in the tournament setting.
But their three guards — senior Kareem Jamar and juniors Keron DeShields and Jordan Gregory — are about as good as it gets. The trio averages 45.3 points a night, accounting for 63 percent of UM’s scoring production (third behind Idaho State’s big three of Chris Hansen, Tomas Sanchez and Andre Hatchett (45.9 ppg) and Eastern’s Tyler Harvey, Venky Jois and Drew Brandon (46.4 ppg)).
In, we think, but in a season where everything changes from week to week we’re not kidding ourselves that we actually know anything.
4. Northern Arizona 13-16, 10-8
Last week: No. 10
Postseason predictor: The Lumberjacks probably need to win one more game to secure a spot.
Northern Arizona shook off back-to-back losses at home and held off Idaho State 66-65 in Pocatello and Weber State 73-71 in overtime in Ogden, Utah.
As far as we’re concerned, NAU head coach Jack Murphy deserves the Big Sky’s coach of the year award. In those home losses two weeks ago, Murphy brought his two leading scorers, junior Quinton Upshur and senior Max Jacobsen, off the bench for the first time this season.
Both Upshur and Jacobsen were reinserted into the starting lineup against ISU and WSU. Upshur responded with 28 points and a career-high eight 3s against the Bengals and 26 points in the win over Weber. Jacobsen wasn’t too bad either, shooting a combined 18-27 in the two games while averaging 18 points.
Whatever buttons Murphy is pushing are the right ones. Now he’s got his squad and its one senior on the precipice of qualifying for the postseason tourney.
Control their own fate, kinda
5. Portland State 14-13, 9-9
Last week: No. 5
Postseason predictor: No idea. They’re playing at home, though, and that can’t hurt. Portland State lost at North Dakota 83-73 and beat Northern Colorado 77-68.
The Vikings have four road wins all season and three of them have come in the past two weeks. Since Jan. 26, Portland State has won four games in a row, lost four straight and then found a way to claw out three wins at Southern Utah (Feb. 20), Eastern Washington (Feb. 24) and Northern Colorado (March 1).
Since losing at home to Northern Arizona and Sacramento State, the Viking offense heated up and rattled off 86 points against the T-Birds, 87 at Eastern and 77 against UNC.
Junior guard Gary Winston has been terrific, scoring 72 points in the Vikings’ last four games. Winston poured in 22 points and dished out seven assists in the upset at UNC.
6. Eastern Washington 14-15, 9-9
Last week: No. 7
Postseason predictor: With EWU’s potent offense, this might be the team no one wants to play in the tournament.
On the road, Eastern torched Northern Colorado in a 80-66 victory and then lost to North Dakota 69-67.
Sophomore Tyler Harvey fell into a shooting slump at UND, missing 10 of his 15 field-goal attempts, finishing with 11 points. Before that game, Harvey had been on a tear, scoring 37 against NAU, 26 at SUU, 23 versus PSU and exploding for 31 against UNC.
In Big Sky play, Harvey is averaging a conference-high 23.3 points. His 66 3-pointers are 15 more than anyone else has made, and only Sanchez is averaging more minutes a game. So, ladies and gentleman, we’re taking this time to introduce your 2014-15 preseason Big Sky player of the year.
7. Montana State 14-15, 9-9
Last week: No. 8
Postseason predictor: Win two road games and they’re probably in good shape.
The Bobcats outlasted Southern Utah 77-72 in snowy Bozeman, Mont., and lost at Montana 53-50.
MSU visits Northern Arizona and Sacramento State this week, two teams the Bobcats beat in their first meeting. So not only would the victories push Montana State to 11 wins, the ’Cats would own head-to-head tiebreakers with both NAU and Sac.
The committee (of one) just has no idea if MSU can cobble together two quality road games.
Do the Bengals believe?
8. Idaho State 11-16, 8-10
Last week: No. 9
Postseason predictor: Have to win twice away from Pocatello this week. If the Bengals do that, they’ll have a chance to get in.
In Reed Gym, Idaho State dropped a 66-65 game to Northern Arizona before rebounding to down Sacramento State 80-67.
The committee (of one) learned a lot about ISU’s toughness with that win Saturday night against the Hornets. Leading into that matchup, the Bengals had lost two straight games by one point. If either (or both) of those contests turn out differently, ISU would control its own postseason fate.
Neither did, though, and that had to be crushing. Still, Idaho State still found a way to get up for Sac State and played some of its best basketball this season, pulling away in the second half.
Now it all comes down to a simple fact as ISU embarks to the Northwest to play Eastern Washington (Thursday) and Portland State (Saturday): Win both and the Bengals will have a shot to make the Big Sky tourney, but falter in either and the season will end in Portland.
Going home and that’s a good, good thing
9. Sacramento State 13-14, 9-9
Last week: No. 2
Postseason predictor: The Hornets return to Sacramento for two games where they’re 7-1 this season. They’ll need to win at least once. Sacramento State lost to Weber State 79-67 and Idaho State 80-67, dropping the Hornets’ road record in the Big Sky to 2-8.
In its 13 wins this season, Sac is averaging a skosh over 76 points, and in 14 losses the offensive production falls under 62 points. It tells us that when the Hornets have it rolling offensively, they’re really tough to beat.
Junior Mikh McKinney might be the quickest guard in the Big Sky and Dylan Garrity, another junior, has a shooting stroke that’s a thing of beauty. But outside of those two, we don’t see a lot of reliable scoring. It’s tough to lean so heavily on two guys to deliver night after night, especially on the road.
The most disappointing team in the league
10. Northern Colorado 16-12, 10-9
Last week: No. 4
Postseason predictor: They’ll get in and their first-round opponent will be psyched to play them. In Greeley, Colo., UNC dropped a 80-66 decision to Eastern Washington and a 77-68 final to Portland State. Tuesday night, the Bears fell behind early and lost at North Dakota 94-90.
Northern Colorado peaked a month ago. The Bears are 3-7 in their last 10 and those two losses to EWU and PSU were their first defeats at home this season. The Vikings and Eagles combined to shoot a torrid 56 for 98 from the field (57 percent).
All the pieces for a good basketball team are there, but none of it’s clicking together. The question is whether head coach B.J. Hill and staff can reverse the negative trends for the conference tourney. From today, they’ve got eight days.
After Saturday, SUU is forgetting the 2013-14 season ever took place
11. Southern Utah 1-26, 0-18
Last week: No. 11
Postseason predictor: The Thunderbirds were officially out of the race about a month ago.
The losing streak hit No. 26 with a 77-72 defeat at Montana State and a 83-54 loss at Montana.
SUU is 11th in the conference in scoring, free-throw shooting, offensive field-goal percentage, 3-point field-goal percentage, rebounding and 3-point field goals made.
But you didn’t need us to tell you that. Southern Utah has lost 26 straight games, 17 of those by double digits. Simply enough, this is a season to bury for loyal T-Bird fans everywhere.
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