I’ve got a lot to say, so without further ado.
1. Montana 21-6, 15-3
Last week: No. 1
In Missoula, Montana improved its record in Dahlberg Arena to 13-2 this season, beating Southern Utah 70-54, and the Lady Griz knocked off Montana State 58-55 in Bozeman.
With a one-game lead in the loss column it’s pretty simple for the Lady Griz at this point. Beat Northern Arizona and Sacramento State on the road this week and they’ll secure home-court for the Big Sky postseason tournament.
If Northern Colorado loses its last game at Southern Utah, then UM needs to only win once. If the Bears win and UM drops one of its games, Northern Colorado will host the tournament.
Or something like that.
2. Northern Colorado 18-10, 15-4
Last week: No. 2
After losing its first home game of the season to Southern Utah, Northern Colorado escaped with a 67-66 win against Eastern Washington and then beat down Portland State 63-48.
Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like to present the 2012-13 player of the year honors to UNC junior D’shara Strange. She’s second in the conference in scoring (14.7 points per game), third in steals (2.39) and fifth in field-goal percentage (41.7 percent).
Strange leads the second-place Bears in minutes (32.6) and rebounds (7.0).
So last season’s defensive player of the year is putting up nearly 15 points and seven rebounds a night, plus she has two game-winning shots (the dagger in Pocatello to trump Idaho State and another last Thursday against Eastern).
The Bears trailed by as much as five with just a skosh more than a minute left against the Eagles, but Strange hit two back-to-back jumpers — the last one with 2.1 seconds left — to complete the comeback.
She followed that up with a season-high 28 — including UNC’s first 15 points — against Portland State.
Northern Colorado needs help from Montana to have a chance at hosting the tournament, but it might not matter with Strange leading the way.
(Oh, and I flip flop on decisions like Tony Romo’s play during the course of season, so I totally reserve the right to change my mind on the Big Sky player of the year.)
3. Idaho State 17-10, 12-6
Last week: No. 3
In what might have been its most impressive weekend of the season, Idaho State trounced Northern Arizona 67-46 and Sacramento State 81-61 in the final games at Reed Gym this year.
Ashleigh Vella was great, with a near triple-double against Sac State. Kaela Oakes hit over 50 percent of her field goal attempts while averaging 16.5 points, and Jessa Jeppesen finished with a combined 30 points and 20 rebounds.
Since starting conference action 1-3, the Bengals have gone 11-3, winning six of their last seven. But against the other top three teams — UM, UNC and EWU — Idaho State is 0-5. Vella, Oakes and the crew have a chance to pick up their first win Thursday when they travel to Cheney (and then to Portland Saturday).
Two wins and ISU is the third seed in the postseason tournament, anything less and the Bengals are fourth and possibly even fifth.
4. Eastern Washington 16-11, 12-6
Last week: No. 4
Eastern Washington dropped a nailbiter at Northern Colorado 67-66 and then beat North Dakota 67-58.
Do we have to start thinking about naming EWU’s Wendy Schuller as the Big Sky coach of the year?
She’s won it once before — back in 2010 — when Eastern won the regular season. That’s not something the Eagles will do this year, but Schuller has wins against Montana, Northern Colorado and Idaho State with a team that was replacing conference MVP Brianne Ryan and has juggled a lineup with eight different starters at one point or the other.
Just a thought: She’s a contender along with Jamie White at Northern Colorado, Robin Selvig (Montana) and Weber’s Bethann Ord (just kidding).
5. Sacramento State 16-11, 11-7
Last week: No. 5
Sacramento State escaped Ogden with a six-point win against Weber State, and then after a fast start, faded and fell to Idaho State 81-61.
At No. 5, Sac State is a dividing line between teams that can win the Big Sky tournament, those that are a tough out and the others that don’t have a shot.
I can see any of the top four teams taking the postseason tourney, but after watching the Hornets in person Saturday it’s hard to imagine them winning three straight in either Missoula or Greeley.
Kylie Kuhns is good (she averaged 21.5 points, 13.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists this past weekend) and the Hornets are dangerous with their unique style of play. But Sac State, for my taste, relies too much on 3-point shooting to carry it. Against teams like Montana, Northern Colorado and Idaho State, they might — might — pull off one upset, but it’s hard to imagine them doing it for three straight nights.
6. Montana State 16-11, 10-8
Last week: No. 9
At home, Montana State lost to Montana 58-55 before upending Southern Utah 56-48.
I had Montana State as low as No. 10 only two weeks ago. The ’Cats haven’t really done anything to convince me since then that they’re not quite that bad (since dropping six straight, MSU has gone 2-1).
But at least the Bobcats showed some renewed life in the loss to Montana Saturday. That game didn’t go MSU’s way, but despite shooting 27 percent from the field the ’Cats held on for the eight-point win against the Thunderbirds with rebounding, defense and stellar free-throw shooting.
It locked up MSU’s spot in the postseason tournament, but whether Montana State can find whatever the heck it was doing earlier — it seems like an age ago that the Bobcats were 8-1 and in first place — is yet to be seen.
7. Southern Utah 13-15, 7-11
Last week: No. 6
On the Montana road trip, Southern Utah lost to UM 70-54 and then fell at Montana State 56-48.
With two games left, the final postseason spot is completely up for grabs ... well, sort of. I just spent the past 20 minutes trying to figure things out.
In a quick summation, here it goes: Northern Arizona owes the tiebreaker with Southern Utah, because the Jacks beat the T-birds twice head to head.
Let’s say SUU loses its last two games to Northern Colorado and North Dakota, and NAU drops its home contest to Montana and Montana State. We’d have a three-way tie for seventh place between SUU, UND and NAU.
The tiebreaker (thanks to a 3-1 record against the other two) goes to Northern Arizona.
Now there’s also the possibility that Portland State could win both of its last games and cause a four-way tie (assuming SUU and NAU both lose twice). In that case, Southern Utah, I think, wins the tie-breaking process.
Did your eyes just glaze over? Is all of that too much information? Did I just waste 20 minutes of my life working through multiple scenarios, many of which have very small probabilities of ever happening? Yes, yes I did. Tell you what, let’s reconvene one week from now when we know who the sacrificial lamb — um, I mean the seventh seed — is and worry about it all then.
8. Northern Arizona 8-19, 7-11
Last week: No. 7
Northern Arizona lost to Idaho State 67-46, and then the Lumberjacks beat Weber State 65-49.
The Jacks are a bit of an odd team. They have beaten both Eastern Washington and Southern Utah twice, but NAU has also dropped games to North Dakota and Portland State.
NAU has the conference’s leading scorer (senior guard Amy Patton), plus a number of scoring threats. At the same time, looking at the conference statistics, Northern Arizona is in the bottom third of a number (like points per game, scoring defense, scoring margin, rebounding and turnover margin).
Yet here they are, tied with the T-birds going into the last weekend. I’m searching for a reason, an explanation but really I have no idea how NAU has scrounged to find seven conference victories after going 1-8 in the preseason.
9. North Dakota 11-17, 6-13
Last week: No. 8
Mascot-less North Dakota lost in frigid Grand Forks to Eastern Washington 67-58.
In this week’s Grand Forks weather update, it looks like those folks have an expected high of 23 degrees today with a paltry 10 percent chance of snow.
Tonight, the temperature should take a steep dive into the teens before rebounding for a brilliant, sunny 30 degrees Thursday.
10. Portland State 11-16, 5-13
Last week: No. 10
In its only game of the week, Portland State was victimized by Northern Colorado’s D’shara Strange in a 63-48 loss.
I make fun of Weber State constantly (because, you know, the Wildcats are really, really terrible), but, in truth, the Vikings have been about as bad for the past month.
PSU’s last win was Feb. 7. Since then — mainly because the Vikings, an average team at best to start with, are dealing with major injury problems — Portland State has lost five games by an average of 19.4 points a contest.
11. Weber State 0-27, 0-18
Last week: No. 11
I’ve had a great time the past couple months making fun of Weber State and its losing streak (which has now set the new Big Sky record with 46-straight losses after losing to Sacramento State and Northern Arizona).
At what point should I scale it back and have a little bit of understanding for what the players, coaches and fans are going through in Ogden? I mean, I’m sure it hasn’t been easy, this whole losing streak thing, right?
But the thing is, Weber has a chance now of going for history beyond the Big Sky. Long Island University lost 58-consecutive games from 1986-89.
So, Weber, I say we take this all the way. Here’s to 59 and a new NCAA record.
“The March to History” continues.
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