Seton Sobolewski and the Idaho State women have been clear about it from the start.
To get back in the Women’s NCAA Championship, step one is winning the Big Sky Conference’s regular season — just like last year.
The regular season champion is rewarded the No. 1 seed and the right to host the postseason tournament.
How important is home-court advantage in the Big Sky postseason tournament? For the past decade, six times the regular season champion has won, and since it started in 1983, the host school has won 23 times.
The Bengals have been particularly good in Reed Gym since Sobolewski arrived in Pocatello, winning 76 percent of their games. Throw his first year at Idaho State out — the Bengals were 11-20 overall and 4-7 at home — and the winning percentage jumps to 86 percent (that’s a 38-6 record).
The point is, the opportunity to host the Big Sky Tournament is both fun and valuable. It’s not absolutely necessary to win a championship — Idaho State went to Missoula, Mont., back in 2007 and won — but it sure doesn’t hurt.
With the goal in mind that everyone in the conference is chasing the postseason’s No. 1 seed, let’s rank ISU’s Big Sky opponents from least likely to most likely to knock off the Bengals for the regular season crown — and the all important opportunity to host the tournament.
10. Weber State 0-9
The Wildcats were 2-27 and 0-16 in the conference last year. Through nine games this season, Weber State is being outscored 24 points a game.
9. Northern Arizona 1-8
NAU senior Amy Patton is the conference’s leading scorer with 21.0 points per game, including 41 against Bradley Nov. 24.
She can score, no doubt about that. Unfortunately for the Lumberjacks, only Weber’s defense gives up more points a contest.
8. Southern Utah 5-4
The Thunderbirds were 6-23 last season. That’s the bad news. Good news is that Southern Utah returned all five of its starters from a year ago.
The results? The Thunderbirds have nearly matched last year’s win total and no team scores more points a game (72) than Southern Utah.
7. North Dakota 4-4
North Dakota has three national championships at Division II and in three seasons in the Great West, UND was 28-6.
Add in a four-game winning streak and mascot-less North Dakota is riding a wave of momentum into its first conference game of the season home against Southern Utah Thursday.
6. Eastern Washington 3-5
Off last year’s squad, the Eagles lost starting point guard Chene Cooper and Big Sky player of the year Brianne Ryan.
But 6-foot-1-inch starting center Carrie Ojeda, 10 points and 9.3 rebounds a game and Montana transfer Lexie Nelson, second in the conference scoring 15.4 a clip, have filled in nicely.
But I put EWU at No. 6 because in the significant statistical categories, the Eagles fit right in the middle.
5. Sacramento State 4-4
Idaho State grinds out wins with a smothering, physical defense. As far as style of play is concerned, the Hornets of Sacramento are the exact opposite.
Only Southern Utah scores more points than Sac. State who press constantly and are at their best when the game is played at a breakneck speed.
Despite the hectic style though, Sacramento State is second in the Big Sky for turnover margin and no team averages more assists.
Out-of-conference victories includes Oregon State and Cal State Bakersfield on the road and Utah Valley at home.
4. Portland State 5-3
The Vikings are Idaho State’s first conference opponent Thursday in Reed Gym at 7 p.m.
PSU has had some notable non-conference victories. On Nov. 15, the Vikings beat Oregon in Eugene 87-85 in double overtime. And Portland State has defeated Butler and Portland.
Statistically, PSU is solid across the board. The Vikings are fourth in scoring margin, third in free throw percentage, fifth in rebounding margin and only ISU has a better field goal percentage defense.
And Portland State has a go-to scorer in Courtney VanBrocklin. She averages 14.5 points a contest while shooting 51 percent from the field. Along with VanBrocklin’s scoring, Angela Misa, an Oregon State transfer, is second in the conference, rebounding 11 a game.
The Vikings will provide a stern test in the Bengals’ first conference game.
3. Northern Colorado 2-6
I have a sneaky suspicion the Bears of NCU are ISU’s biggest threat. Northern Colorado has a lousy record but chalk that up to games at Colorado State, Utah, San Diego, Denver, Wichita State and Texas Tech.
The Bears defense, allowing 59.6 points a game, has been good but it’s the offense that’s been terrible. NCU is scoring a measly 50.9 points a game.
So why put them as high as No. 3? Well, first, I’m stubborn. I had the Bears at No. 2 in the my preseason poll and after watching the Big Sky defensive player of the year D’shara Strange last year, I’m convinced Northern Colorado is a force to reckon with in conference play. By the way, Strange is averaging 14.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.8 steals a game.
2. Montana State 6-2
The Bobcats were the only Big Sky team to beat Idaho State in Reed Gym in 2011-12. MSU’s Katie Bussey caught fire and scored 41 points.
Even though Bussey is gone to graduation, Montana State remains as one of the top team’s because of players like Rachel Semansky, Kalli Durham and Ashley Brumwell. All three average double figures.
The Bobcats are a well-rounded squad. They’re third in scoring offense and third in scoring defense.
1. Montana 6-3
Are the Grizzlies really ISU’s biggest threat to take away the postseason’s No. 1 seed? Really, I have no idea. I can tell you that entering the year Montana had all five starters back from 2011-12.
And I can tell you that the Lady Griz have claimed 19 Big Sky championships. Idaho State has the second most with three. I’m hesitant to place the Griz anywhere else.
No comments:
Post a Comment