In three Big Sky games, the Idaho State women have lost as many contests as all of last season when the Bengals didn’t suffer a second conference loss until Feb. 23.
But now after Thursday night’s 64-59 setback to North Dakota in Grand Forks, ISU sits at 1-2 in the Big Sky, 6-6 overall and losers of its last three. And with Northern Colorado — the preseason No. 2 pick by both the media and coaches — as the next opponent in Greeley, Colo., the prospect of another loss is real.
With nearly the entire roster back — including heady point guard Kaela Oakes, the versatile Ashleigh Vella and the fearless Lindsey Reed — this season, the Bengals were sure to equalize or even surpass any standard set before.
Right?
Yet there they are in eighth place.
Why?
Is it a dearth of shooting? In losses to Eastern Washington and North Dakota, the Bengals field goal percentage was 28.6 and 35.5 percent, respectively. In the 13-point win over Portland State, ISU converted a season-high 48.9 percent of its field goal attempts as a team.
So in that small, very small sample size one could simply point to a lack of shooting for Idaho State’s shortcomings. But for the season, the Bengals have a 36.8 field goal percentage. In 2011-12, that mark was 38.2 percent.
That slight drop in efficiency roughly translates to one less field goal made per game for ISU, not exactly a dramatic drop off.
Are the early season struggles somehow related to the loss of Chelsea Pickering? Pickering wasn’t only the Bengals’ leading scorer last season. It was her leadership on the floor and the way she could nail a timely 3-pointer when ISU desperately needed a boost. She made plays.
But I’m not sure head coach Seton Sobolewski hasn’t figured out a way to fill the void Pickering left behind. Kara Jenkins, Reed, Cydney Horton, Abyee Maracigan and Jessa Jeppesen have all upped their scoring averages.
And right now, Idaho State is averaging 60.5 points a game. That’s down from 62 a year ago. But its flawed to directly compare the numbers because the average from 2011-12 includes 32 games and an entire campaign in the Big Sky where this year’s average is over 12 games, many of which were against schools from the Big 12, the Big Ten and the Pac-12.
So while Idaho State hasn’t exactly shot well in the Big Sky up to this point, it’s too easy to point to field goal percentages.
Here are a couple thoughts to consider, though.
Kaela Oakes’ shooting touch is off. For the season, Oakes is 32-for-111 from the floor (28.8 percent). Last season she hit on 38 percent of her attempts.
Perhaps she’s having to play too many minutes. Since going 5-for-11 from the field against Portland State, Oakes is a combined 6-for-28 in the Bengals’ last three games, and she’s doing it while playing nearly the entire 40 minutes.
And while Oakes’ shooting stroke has been floundering, Vella has been an absolute foul magnet, fouling out of ISU’s last four games. For the season now, Vella has been disqualified from half of Idaho State’s games. She fouled out five times last year and only twice against Big Sky opponents.
Part of the blame falls to Vella. At times Sobolewski has let her remain on the floor while still in foul trouble hopeful that she’ll avoid another. Recently, she hasn’t.
And part of the foul dilemma is just bad luck. Make no mistake, those fouls are killer. When she picks up a third in the first half or a fourth with 15 minutes to play, it affects the way Vella can attack the basket offensively or how aggressively she can dive for loose balls.
Any player who relies on touch and rhythm for their offense is jolted from any sense of normalcy when consistently saddled with multiple fouls.
And, really, small things like Vella’s fouls and Oakes’ poor shooting can be a big part of the difference between a win and a loss.
Maybe that’s the real reason why the Bengals are 1-2 right now instead of the assumed 3-0. Last season was a magical, spectacular season. A lot of things have to go right for any team to win the regular season title by a complete three games like Idaho State did.
No matter how hard ISU prepared for this year, the journey back to the top was always going to have bumps along the road.
The conference is absolutely loaded right now. The same night Idaho State fell to North Dakota, Montana State — off a loss to a Division II opponent — beat Portland State on the road. A 1-10 Northern Arizona team traveled to 7-4 Southern Utah and knocked off the Thunderbirds. And Eastern Washington held on for a two-point win over Montana.
The difference between the Big Sky’s best team — whomever that may be — and the seventh or eighth isn’t vast. On any night, every team in the conference — Weber State notwithstanding — is susceptible to losing.
Let’s put concern over the ISU women to the side for the moment because, folks, Oakes is a gamer. She’ll find a way to improve her shooting efficiency. Vella will figure out how not to foul out every night and Sobolewski — there’s not a better coach in the Big Sky — will coax every single ounce of effort possible from his players.
There’s nothing wrong with the Bengal women. They’re on the road in the middle of conference action fighting, scrapping and clawing for everything they can get.
Strap yourselves in ISU fans because the flight through this season may not fly smoothly like the last, but it might end up as a lot more fun.
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