This is where we size
up all 13 teams in the Big Sky and evaluate each based on a combination of factors.
We missed updating the standings last week. Much like the San Diego Chargers, we're maddeningly inconsistent. But we view Tom Brady's consistency with great regard and hope to emulate his play more as the weeks progress.
Four Big Sky teams appear in the Sports Network FCS Top-25 College Football Poll
this week. Montana State, amazingly, stays at No. 2. The Bobcats have
three first place votes. We find this highly disconcerting. Clearly,
those three people have either not watched a moment of MSU's play the
past few weeks, or a die-hard Bobcat fan is holding them hostage. Folks,
seriously, let's start an investigation.
Eastern Washington is at No. 6 this week. Cal Poly continues its climb up the polls, jumping five spots to No. 15. Northern Arizona is right behind at No. 16.
Eastern Washington is at No. 6 this week. Cal Poly continues its climb up the polls, jumping five spots to No. 15. Northern Arizona is right behind at No. 16.
Montana,
Sacramento State, North Dakota and UC Davis all received votes (we can
only assume the pollster who put the Aggies in their poll mistakenly
read their record as 4-2 and not 2-4).
Without further ado ...
1. Eastern Washington Eagles 4-1, 3-0 (PF:159 , PA: 96 ) (previously: 2)
Last week: beat Northern Dakota at home 55-17
This week: at Montana State
The top spot in these rankings has vacillated nearly as much as Tony Romo's play. But we firmly believe we've found the best team in the Eagles.
Without further ado ...
1. Eastern Washington Eagles 4-1, 3-0 (PF:159 , PA: 96 ) (previously: 2)
Last week: beat Northern Dakota at home 55-17
This week: at Montana State
The top spot in these rankings has vacillated nearly as much as Tony Romo's play. But we firmly believe we've found the best team in the Eagles.
And by putting Eastern at No. 1, you can assume who we think will win the top-10 matchup in Bozeman Saturday.
The Eagles have lost two in a row to Montana State, but behind freshman phenom Vernon Adams, Eastern is going to escape Bobcat Stadium with a 38 to 34 win. Mark it down.
2. Montana State Bobcats, 6-0, 3-0 (PF: 223, PA: 139) (previously: 1)
Last week: beat UC Davis 48-41in Davis, Calif.
This week: vs. Eastern Washington
We've seen a number of articles that center around the idea that Montana State's starting quarterback, Denarius McGhee, 'just makes stuff happen."
The
narrative around McGhee is that he's a winner — which, actually, is
absolutely correct. In his career, the junior quarterback has won 25
games since he started his redshirt freshman season.
But
the Bobcats have turned the ball over eight times in the past two
weeks, and MSU is -5 in turnover differential for the season (meaning
the Bobcats have five more offensive turnovers than defensive
takeaways). In contrast, Cal Poly is plus eight.
We
lay much of that blame at the feet of McGhee. Much of his "playmaking"
leads to turnovers. The Bobcats have nearly gagged away three games
because of the way
they've fumbled the ball or threw it to the wrong colored jersey.
With McGhee, after he scrambles outside the pocket, opposing fans close their eyes expecting him to find someone deep for a first down (or for McGhee to dash downfield himself). Meanwhile, Bobcat fans want to close their eyes because it's the most likely time that he'll throw a pick or have another costly fumble
There's no middle ground!
An optimist (or Bobcat fan) would say, "Well, he made the plays when he's had to, and by game's end the good outweighs the bad."
A pessimist (or Bobcat opponent) would say, "McGhee can play hero ball against Southern Utah and UC Davis, but when the Cats take on quality opponents like Eastern Washington, he can't continually put his defense in bad spots and reverse momentum with boneheaded plays. Sometimes it's OK to win the fire position battle."
It seems like everything in the media is playing into the notion that McGhee is an elite level guy who is good enough to lead MSU to a championship (hence the No. 2 ranking).
But we don't know. The more we watch McGhee's disregard for ball security and field position the more we want to sell Montana State's stock.
With McGhee, after he scrambles outside the pocket, opposing fans close their eyes expecting him to find someone deep for a first down (or for McGhee to dash downfield himself). Meanwhile, Bobcat fans want to close their eyes because it's the most likely time that he'll throw a pick or have another costly fumble
There's no middle ground!
An optimist (or Bobcat fan) would say, "Well, he made the plays when he's had to, and by game's end the good outweighs the bad."
A pessimist (or Bobcat opponent) would say, "McGhee can play hero ball against Southern Utah and UC Davis, but when the Cats take on quality opponents like Eastern Washington, he can't continually put his defense in bad spots and reverse momentum with boneheaded plays. Sometimes it's OK to win the fire position battle."
It seems like everything in the media is playing into the notion that McGhee is an elite level guy who is good enough to lead MSU to a championship (hence the No. 2 ranking).
But we don't know. The more we watch McGhee's disregard for ball security and field position the more we want to sell Montana State's stock.
On the other hand, MSU's defensive line is filthy good, the offense averages a league best 37.2 points per game and the home-field advantage against Eastern may be just enough to push the Cats over Eastern.
3. Cal Poly Mustangs, 5-0, 3-0 (PF: 173 PA: 96) (previously: 4)
Last week: beat Weber State 45-23 in Ogden, Utah
This week: vs. Northern Colorado
The Mustangs are tied with Eastern for the top-ranked scoring defense in the Big Sky (19.2 points per game).
Cal Poly rushes for 310 yards a game, the best in the conference.
Behind only MSU, Cal Poly converts the most third down attempts in the Big Sky.
And, as mentioned earlier, the Mustangs are plus eight in turnover differential.
Oh, and Cal Poly does not have either Eastern, MSU or Montana on its conference schedule!
If the Mustangs can beat win out at home against Northern Colorado and Idaho State, and then beat Sacramento State and Northern Arizona on the road ... then, ladies and gentlemen, we present the 2012 Big Sky conference champions!
(One note. Cal Poly does play in Cheney, Wash., Nov. 3, but it's a nonconference game. No, we do not understand how this makes sense either.)
4. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, 4-1, 2-0 (PF: 157 PA: 118) (previously: 3)
Last week: bye
This week: at North Dakota
We moved the Lumberjacks down not because of anything they did or didn't do. Instead, it's based more on Cal Poly's merits.
If you asked us a few weeks earlier to point to a big game for NAU, we would have readily hinted at the Lumberjacks' trip east to Bismark. But mascot-less North Dakota has been outscored 90-34 in its past two games.
It leads us to believe that, off a bye week, NAU should leave the Alerus Center with a win.
5. Sacramento State 4-2, 2-1 (PF: 171 PA: 182) (previously 9)
Last week: beat Southern Utah 27-22 on the road
This week: vs. Weber State
After pummeling Idaho State (a bit of theme developing in the conference) Sacramento State traveled to Southern Utah and ground out a good road win.
Down 16-7 at half, the Hornets outscored Southern Utah 20-6 in the final two quarters. Most impressively, Sac. State QB Garrett Safron led his team on two 10+ play, 80-yard drives at the end of the third and in the middle of the fourth quarter to down the Thunderbirds.
We like their mettle.
But statistically, the Hornets are really average in just about every category. Beating Southern Utah and ISU is good, however, games against Eastern, Cal Poly and MSU will answer any of our questions.
6. Montana Grizzlies, 3-3, 1-2 (PF: 193 PA: 163) (previously: 6)
This week: vs. Southern Utah
After a two game slide, there's nothing better than a game against Northern Colorado, right?
The Griz piled up 452 yards in Greeley Colo., and Peter Nguyen accumulated 178 all-purpose yards as Montana cruised to its first conference win.
It was difficult to imagine the Griz fading away from playoff contention without putting up a fight. And the schedule actually matches up pretty well for Montana. After hosting Southern Utah Saturday, the Grizzlies travel to North Dakota, host Idaho State and then travel to Weber.
We expect UM to be 7-3 overall and 5-2 in conference play as they get ready to host rival Montana State Nov. 17.
7. Southern Utah Thunderbirds, 2-4, 1-2 (PF: 167 PA: 200) (previously: 7)
Last week: lost to Sacramento State 27-22 at home
This week: at Montana
Two weeks, the Thunderbirds were 2-2 overall and 1-0 in conference play. With two home games against MSU and Sac. State, Southern Utah had its opportunities to really add an exclamation point to their season.
But a seven point loss to the Cats and five point loss to Sac. State derailed their season. With Montana this Saturday, Eastern Oct. 27 and Northern Arizona Nov. 10, we expect SU to finish its first season in the Big Sky under .500.
What's gone wrong for the Birds? Well, only Weber and ISU's defenses give up more points per game. And senior-stud Brad Sorensen has been forced to push the envelope offensively. While Sorensen as 14 touchdown passes, he's also tossed eight picks. Right now, Southern Utah lacks elite offensive talent.
8. Portland State Vikings, 2-4, 1-2 (PF: 217 PA: 200) (previously: 8)
Last week: beat Idaho State 77-10 at home
This week: bye
How many people saw the PSU/ISU scoreline last Saturday and assumed it was a typo?
Craziest stat from the game? It wasn't that the Vikings had 437 rushing yards or 758 total yards. It wasn't that four, four!, rushers for PSU averaged more than 10 yards per carry.
No, it was that the Vikings punted four times in the game and STILL SCORED 77 POINTS! (OK, so the Portland State defense scored twice themselves, but don't ruin the story.)
We move PSU up to No. 7 in our rankings not because we're particularly impressed by the dominant victory, but more because ... well, the middles of the conference is pretty ugly at this point.
9. UC Davis, 2-4, 1-2 (PF: 160 PA: 149) (previously: 12)
Last week: lost to Montana State 48-41 at home
This week: at Idaho State
Did we mention that UC Davis, at a stellar 2-4, received a vote in The Sports Network FCS Top 25?
Ridiculous.
On the bright side, UC Davis looks like a beautiful place.
10. North Dakota, 3-3, 1-2 (PF: 221 PA: 189) (previously: 5)
9. UC Davis, 2-4, 1-2 (PF: 160 PA: 149) (previously: 12)
Last week: lost to Montana State 48-41 at home
This week: at Idaho State
Did we mention that UC Davis, at a stellar 2-4, received a vote in The Sports Network FCS Top 25?
Ridiculous.
On the bright side, UC Davis looks like a beautiful place.
10. North Dakota, 3-3, 1-2 (PF: 221 PA: 189) (previously: 5)
Last week: lost to Eastern Washington 55-17 on the road
This week: vs. Northern Arizona
We had North Dakota as high as No. 5 in our rankings, and we haven't forgotten that 35-13 win at Sacramento State Sept. 22. But losing by a total of 56 points the past two weeks, the committee (of one) is compelled to move mascot-less North Dakota down in the power rankings.
Can UND right the ship at home against the Lumberjacks? Better question, can North Dakota slow down Zach Bauman, who has seven rushing touchdowns and is averaging 6.6 yards per carry?
11. Northern Colorado Bears, 1-4, 0-2 (PF: 90 PA: 153) (previously: 12)
Last week: lost to Montana 40-17 at home
This week: at Cal Poly
Against FCS level competition, the Bears have been outscored 109-50. And as lucky as Cal Poly and Northern Arizona with their conference schedules, Northern Colorado wasn't.
Montana, Montana State, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona in about a month's time frame. But, hey Bears' fans, you get to play Idaho State Oct. 20!
12. Weber State Wildcats, 0-6, 0-3 (PF: 106 PA: 231) (previously: 11)
Last week: lost to to Cal Poly 45-23 at home
This week: at Sacramento State
How does a team that's been outscored by an average of 20.8 points per game, and hasn't won anything more than a coin toss not be at the bottom of these rankings? Please read below.
13. Idaho State Bengals, 1-1 (PF: 66 PA: 127) (previously: 10)
Last week: lost to Portland State 7-10 on the road
This week: vs. UC Davis
What's there to say about the debacle that's ISU football right now? In Big Sky play, opponents have outscored the Bengals 104-18 in the last six quarters.
In their last three games, the Bengals have been outscored by an average of 52 points per game.
Quarterback Kevin Yost is leading the conference in passing yards per game, but he's only ninth in passing efficiency and has seven interceptions to nine touchdowns.
We won't belabor the point. The Bengals stink.
This week: vs. Northern Arizona
We had North Dakota as high as No. 5 in our rankings, and we haven't forgotten that 35-13 win at Sacramento State Sept. 22. But losing by a total of 56 points the past two weeks, the committee (of one) is compelled to move mascot-less North Dakota down in the power rankings.
Can UND right the ship at home against the Lumberjacks? Better question, can North Dakota slow down Zach Bauman, who has seven rushing touchdowns and is averaging 6.6 yards per carry?
Last week: lost to Montana 40-17 at home
This week: at Cal Poly
Against FCS level competition, the Bears have been outscored 109-50. And as lucky as Cal Poly and Northern Arizona with their conference schedules, Northern Colorado wasn't.
Montana, Montana State, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona in about a month's time frame. But, hey Bears' fans, you get to play Idaho State Oct. 20!
12. Weber State Wildcats, 0-6, 0-3 (PF: 106 PA: 231) (previously: 11)
Last week: lost to to Cal Poly 45-23 at home
This week: at Sacramento State
How does a team that's been outscored by an average of 20.8 points per game, and hasn't won anything more than a coin toss not be at the bottom of these rankings? Please read below.
13. Idaho State Bengals, 1-1 (PF: 66 PA: 127) (previously: 10)
Last week: lost to Portland State 7-10 on the road
This week: vs. UC Davis
What's there to say about the debacle that's ISU football right now? In Big Sky play, opponents have outscored the Bengals 104-18 in the last six quarters.
In their last three games, the Bengals have been outscored by an average of 52 points per game.
Quarterback Kevin Yost is leading the conference in passing yards per game, but he's only ninth in passing efficiency and has seven interceptions to nine touchdowns.
We won't belabor the point. The Bengals stink.
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