Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Big Sky Power Rankings

Welcome to the inaugural edition of ISJ Sports' weekly Big Sky Power Rankings. Every Wednesday we'll size up all 13 teams and evaluate each based on a combination of factors (like strength of schedule, who is playing well today ... you know, all the things coaches' poll totally ignores).

To this point of the season it's nearly impossible to get a clear reading on many of the teams because most have offered themselves up for slaughter to the likes of BYU and Fresno State (Weber, that's you!) or Utah State and California (hello, Southern Utah!). 

Though a few have not only taken the paycheck from the big boys but their manhood too. Sacramento State beat Colorado, Eastern Washington took down Idaho, Cal Poly beat Wyoming and both North Dakota and Eastern nearly beat top-tier opponents.

For the most part,however, Big Sky teams have either played cream puffs or assumed the role of sacrificial lamb. But conference play commences for most this Saturday and we can't wait to see how the new 13-team league shakes out.

One more note: Three Big Sky teams make The Sports Network FCS Top-25 College Football Poll. Montana State at No. 2, Eastern Washington No. 9 and Montana at No. 14. Cal Poly, Sac. State and Northern Arizona all received votes.

Without further ado ...

1. Eastern Washington Eagles, 1-1 (PF: 40, PA: 27) (previously: n/a)
Last week: Bye
This week: at Weber State

SMU transfer Kyle Padron had big shoes to fill the moment he chose to follow Bo Levi Mitchell to Cheney, Wash., the 2011 Walter Payton Award winner.

His numbers have been ... OK. Three touchdowns, three interceptions and he's completing less than 45 percent of his 87 passing attempts. But the 6-foot-4-inch 220 pound junior made enough plays to lead the Eagles in a 20-3 win over Idaho. And Eastern nearly spoiled Mike Leach's home-debut in a 24-20 loss to Washington State.

If Padron can improve his efficiency, and we think he will, then watch out because the Eagles have the best group of receivers in the country.   

2. Montana State Bobcats, 3-0 (PF: 110, PA: 65) (previously: n/a)
Last week: beat Stephen F. Austin 43-35 at home
This week: vs. Northern Colorado

Two weeks ago, Drake threw for 311 yards and scored 24 points against the MSU defense.

Last Saturday, Stephen F. Austin's Brady Attaway passed for 418 yards and two touchdowns. Granted, MSU was missing its best two defensive lineman — Zach Minter and Brad Daly — but the No. 2 Bobcats have the 39th ranked defense in the FCS, giving up 326 yards per game.

The top ranked defense? The No. 1 North Dakota State Bison — 166 yard per game.

Early reports from Bozeman indicate Minter and Daly may not play this weekend, but it's doubtful Northern Colorado has the personnel to truly push the 'Cats.

3. Montana Grizzlies, 2-1 (PF: 96 PA: 73) (previously: n/a)
Last week: beat Liberty 34-14 at home
This week: vs. Northern Arizona

Despite the off-season turmoil, a new coach, two new coordinators and a change at quarterback, No. 14 Montana just keeps rolling behind a powerful running attack that has out gained opponents 750 to 327.

The Griz are in the middle of a tough opening schedule. After opening with South Dakota, Montana traveled across the country to play App. State. Now starting with conference play, UM hosts Northern Arizona before visiting Cheney Wash., Sep. 29.

4. Cal Poly, 2-0 (PF: 65 PA: 36) (previously: n/a)
Last week: beat Wyoming 24-22 on the road
This week: vs. UC Davis

At ISJ Sports, we have a soft spot for teams that prefer to run over opponents rather than  air it out 45 times a game. And it was via the ground attack that Cal Poly managed a two-point win over the Cowboys, cranking out 325 yards with 68 carries.

This week, the Mustangs take on rival UC Davis in the program's first-ever Big Sky conference game.

(Oh, and this team was gifted a conference schedule that's missing both Montana schools. If Cal Poly can survive road trips to North Dakota and Eastern Washington then we might have found the team outside our top three that has the best chance to win the Big Sky)

5. North Dakota, 2-1 (PF: 152 PA: 86) (previously: n/a)
Last week: lost to San Diego State 49 to 41 on the road
This week: at Sacramento State

North Dakota is the top scoring team in the conference, averaging more than 50 points per game. Junior Greg Hardin has 17 receptions for 435 yards and seven — seven! — touchdowns.

Conversely, North Dakota's defense gave up 37 points at home to Portland State and 49 to San Diego State.

North Dakota stays in California this week and begins conference play at Sac. State.

5. Sacramento State, 2-1 (PF: 77 PA: 94) (previously: n/a)Last week: beat Northern Colorado 28-17 at home
This week: host North Dakota

We strongly believe that by season's end the Hornets will appear much closer to the bottom of this list than this current spot.

Why? Because Sac. State reminds of us of the Pittsburgh Pirates in Major League Baseball the past two seasons. They start off hot and fade down the stretch.

The win over Colorado was impressive (even if the Buffs may be the worst BCS conference team in the nation), but Sac. State struggled mightily against Northern Colorado last Saturday at home.

Northern Colorado had more first downs (23 to 17) and the Bears out gained the Hornets 399 yards to 341. But turnovers (4) and penalties (11 for 117 yards) doomed No. Col's upset hopes.

We're willing to accept that Sac. State was bound for a let down following the big victory over a Pac-12 opponent. In 2011, after the Hornets beat Oregon State, they lost by three touchdowns to Southern Utah.

7. Northern Arizona, 2-1 (PF: 92 PA: 77) (previously: n/a) Last week: beat Fort Lewis 69-0 at home
This week: at Montana

Northern Arizona head coach Jerome Souer struggled mightily to beat Bobby Hauck when he was the leading man at Montana. But Souer and the Lumberjacks found a way to come back from a 14-point deficit to defeat UNLV Sep. 8 in Vegas.

Another bad loss for UNLV but a great team-building win for Northern Arizona. Running back Zach Bauman — 246 yards and three TDs this season — is one of the best in the conference. Can he find enough running lanes to upset the Griz on the road, and reverse the Lumberjacks' 14-game losing streak to Montana?

8. Portland State, 1-2 (PF: 88 PA: 117) (previously: n/a)
Last week: lost to Washington 52-13 on the road
This week: host Southern Utah

The Vikings are dead last in the conference allowing 39 points per game. PSU gave up 52 to Washington — completely excusable — but North Dakota put up 45 the week before. And NAIA powerhouse Carroll College scored 20 points in PSU's opening game Sep. 1.

The defense will have to stiffen for the Vikings to fulfill preseason expectations that pegged them as the fourth best team.

9. Southern Utah, 1-2 (PF: 79 PA: 107) (previously: n/a)
Last week: beat New Mexico Highlands 45-23
This week: at Portland State

We are impressed by Southern Utah's top-tier talent. Few are better than Thunderbirds' quarterback Brad Sorensen. But before Saturday, this ISJ Sports blog had never heard of New Mexico Highlands and we are left unimpressed.

10. Idaho State, 1-1 (PF: 59 PA: 54) (previously: n/a)
Last week: bye
This week: at Nebraska

It's possible we are overrating the Bengals by placing them 10th? After games against Air Force and Black Hills State, ISU has not yet played anyone at the FCS level. And they're not about to with Nebraska looming this Saturday.

But we've seen Kevin Yost up close and we've felt Mike Kramer's energy. The Bengals may not win a lot of games but putting them at 10 feels like a safe bet.

11. Northern Colorado, 1-1 (PF: 57 PA: 72) (previously: n/a)
Last week: lost to Sacramento State 28-17 on the road
This week: at Montana State
 
Northern Colorado's last conference win was way back on Nov. 13, 2010 and under second-year head coach Earnest Collins Jr., the Bears have only beaten Colorado Mesa University.
 
I guess I'm saying that Northern Colorado may find itself buried in the bottom of these rankings very shortly. Let's let them enjoy No. 11.

12. Weber State, 0-3 (PF: 44 PA: 117) (previously: n/a)
Last week: lost to McNeese State 35-21 at home
This week: vs. Eastern Washington

Weber State was down 35-21 before scoring two late touchdowns to turn a rout into a more respectable scoreline.

In total, the Cowboys — undefeated and ranked No. 19 in the country this week — racked up 557 total yards of offense, and Weber struggled to move the ball.

It's been a tough opening month for the Wildcats, admittedly. At Fresno State, at BYU, home to McNeese State and now Eastern Washington comes calling. Weber State is the only Big Sky member that has not won a game yet, and we except that to continue for at least one more week.

(The good news Wildcat fans? John L. Smith and Arkansas are struggling, too!)

13. UC Davis, 1-2 (PF: 62 PA: 60) (previously: n/a)
Last week: lost to South Dakota State 12-8 on the road
This week: at Cal Poly

Since pasting Azusa Pacific 41-3 Aug. 30 in the team's opener, UC Davis' offense has slogged its way through two games.  Against South Dakota State last week, the Aggies offense never scored — the lone UC Davis touchdown was a 69-yard interception returned for a touchdown.

On the bright side Aggie fans, Davis, Calif., is beautiful.








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