We’re two weeks into the conference season and with a combined 2-13
league record, Idaho State, Southern Utah, Montana State and North
Dakota are in trouble.
Each team has its flaws and all of them are
off to miserable starts in the Big Sky Conference. If those are indeed
the league’s bottom four teams, then we already have the postseason
field set (eight teams qualify for the Big Sky tournament).
Is it too early to declare someone’s season over?
North
Dakota just needs to rebound a little better and the mascot-less could
push to break into the top eight. Idaho State — until this past weekend —
has been good defensively. Southern Utah hasn’t won a conference game
yet, but two of its losses are by three points, and the Thunderbirds
have yet to play a game at home in the Big Sky. Montana State blew a big
lead in Pocatello before nearly upsetting Weber State.
So who knows? Maybe someone will surprise the committee (of one) and turn their season around.
If Tony Romo can almost win a road playoff game, anything is possible.
Without further ado.
1. Eastern Washington
Record: 12-4, 3-0
Last week: No. 1
AdjO - AdjD = 5.5 (5.4 last week)
The Eagles beat Idaho in Moscow 89-86 and drove home the point that they’re the team to beat this season.
After
two weeks, Eastern is the last undefeated team in the conference, and
they might stay that way for a while. Tyler Harvey, the nation’s leading
scorer (23.4 points per game), is terrific, but so too are junior
forward Venky Jois (18.9 points and 7.8 rebounds per game) and senior
guard Drew Brandon (7.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game).
The
Eagles are easily the best offensive team in the Big Sky. If there is
hope for the rest of the league, it’s EWU’s 1.06 points per possession
allowed on defense, the sixth-best mark in the conference.
2. Montana
Record: 6-8, 3-1
Last week: No. 4
AdjO - AdjD = -1.9
Montana lost to Weber State (68-60) and beat Idaho State (90-64) on the road.
It’s
a one-game sample, but the committee (of one) could not have been more
impressed with the Grizzlies after they whipped Idaho State on Saturday.
They were crisp on offense and organized on defense. First-year coach
Travis Decuire looked like he was in total command.
3. Idaho
Record: 7-7, 2-1
Last week: No. 2
AdjO - AdjD = -3.7
Idaho
lost its second home game of the season to Eastern Washington, 89-86,
after Mike Scott’s 3-pointer missed its mark in the waning seconds.
Idaho
let Eastern shoot 53 percent from the field and five different Eagles
scored in double figures. But the Vandals still nearly won the game,
even after star senior guard Mike Scott shot 4 for 12 from the field and
had four turnovers (Scott leads the Big Sky in assist-to-turnover
ratio).
4. Weber State
Record: 7-8, 2-2
Last week: No. 3
AdjO - AdjD = -3.8
Weber State beat Montana (68-60) and Montana State (65-62) at home.
Weber
wasn’t particularly impressive in a three-point win over the Bobcats,
but disaster was still avoided for coach Randy Rahe and Weber State.
The
committee (of one) believes the Wildcats still have a shot to win the
Big Sky regular season. The more time sophomores Jeremy Senglin (15.1
points per game) and Richaud Gittens (10.3 ppg) have on the floor
playing crunch-time minutes, the better they’ll be.
5. Sacramento State
Record: 9-6, 3-1
Last week: No. 5
AdjO - AdjD = -5.1
Sacramento
State beat North Dakota 63-61 to move into first place of the Big Sky
standings, and then immediately lost its next game at Northern Colorado
87-73.
The loss to UNC snapped the Hornets’ four-game winning
streak, something the program has done five times since joining Division
I back in 1991.
The committee (of one) has bragged about Sac
State’s backcourt of senior guards Mikh McKinney and Dylan Garrity. Both
have to be great for the Hornets to contend for a conference title.
McKinney
wasn’t great this weekend, committing nine combined turnovers in two
games. We’re curious to see how he plays at home against Idaho on
Thursday and Eastern Washington on Saturday.
6. Northern Arizona
Record: 7-9, 2-1
Last week: No. 6
AdjO-AdjD = -3.7
Northern Arizona managed to hold off Southern Utah 70-67.
The
Lumberjacks nearly gagged away a 19-point lead to the Thunderbids, but
managed to hold on thanks to a 12-point advantage from the free throw
line.
NAU’s shooting woes continue to be a concern. The ’Jacks
have shot 45 percent from the field in their seven wins and 37 percent
in nine losses. Senior guard Quinton Upshur, who tore up Idaho State in
one game last season for eight 3-pointers, is hitting a disappointing 34
percent of his threes this season.
7. Northern Colorado
Record: 8-7, 3-1
Last week: No. 7
AdjO - AdjD = -6.7
Tevin
Svihovec was named the Big Sky’s player of the week after Northern
Colorado beat Portland State 90-85 and Sacramento State 84-73.
Svihovec
averaged 21 points, 5.5 assists and three rebounds in the two wins. UNC
is one of the better offensive teams in the league, but the committee
(of one) has them at No. 7 because they’re concerned about their
league-worst 1.13 points per possession on defense.
8. Portland State
Record: 8-6, 2-2
Last week: No. 8
AdjO - AdjD = -9.6
Portland State lost at Northern Colorado (90-85) and knocked off North Dakota (82-75).
The
Vikings have beaten the teams they should (Southern Utah and North
Dakota) and lost to the teams they should (Northern Arizona and Northern
Colorado).
It seems like PSU is destined to finish the season
seventh or eighth in the conference standings. The Vikings, led by
senior guard DaShaun Wiggins’ 15.7 points a game, have the firepower to
beat the league’s bad teams, but they’re not good enough defensively
(1.10 points per possession, ninth in the Big Sky) or on the glass to
consistently take on squads like Eastern Washington and Weber State.
PSU has a chance to prove that wrong this week. EWU goes to the Rose City on Thursday.
9. North Dakota
Record: 5-10, 1-3
Last week: No. 9
AdjO - AdjD = -12
The mascot-less dropped two competitive games at home to Sacramento State (63-61) and Portland State (82-75).
Winning
on your home floor is absolutely essential in the Big Sky Conference.
The fact North Dakota couldn’t beat either Portland State or Sacramento
State is a devastating blow.
UND’s next four games are brutal,
too. On Saturday, the mascot-less host Northern Colorado in frigid Grand
Forks, and then there’s a three-game slate with games at Idaho and
Eastern Washington before Weber State visits UND.
On another note,
the projected high in Grand Forks today is a cozy 13 degrees with a 20
percent chance of snow. That’s actually kind of nice considering it was
10 below zero Monday night.
10. Idaho State
Record: 4-12, 1-3
Last week: No. 10
AdjO - AdjD = -13.5 (-11.5 last week)
Idaho
State faced two 19-point deficit at home last week. In the first, the
Bengals rallied to upend Montana State 70-61. In the second, Montana
walloped ISU 90-64.
Idaho State’s offense, apart from a couple
stretches, hasn’t been good all season. The Bengals’ defense, though,
has always been a constant beacon of hope, something that kept ISU in
games.
But Idaho State’s defense was inconsistent against Montana
State and downright bad against the Grizzlies. The Bengals dropped from
second to fifth in the Big Sky for points allowed per possession.
11. Montana State
Record: 3-13, 0-4
Last week: No. 11
AdjO - AdjD = -13.6 (-13.9 last week)
Montana
State blew a big lead in a 70-61 loss at Idaho State, and couldn’t pull
out a major upset in a 65-62 defeat to Weber State.
The Bobcats
looked great against ISU for 20 minutes, but MSU struggled to score once
Idaho State took guard Marcus Colbert out of the game.
At 0-4 in the Big Sky, the Bobcats have already reached a point of the season where their postseason lives are on life support.
12. Southern Utah
Record: 3-11, 0-3
Last week: No. 12
AdjO - AdjD = -15.6 (-17.1 last week)
The Thunderbids lost at Northern Arizona 70-67 in their lone game last week.
The
close score with NAU is somewhat deceiving. Southern Utah trailed 56-40
with 6:10 remaining in the game. It was a great comeback, but the
T-birds never had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead. And an
SUU 3-pointer with three seconds left trimmed the final margin.
One
thing cannot be denied, though, Southern Utah is a much better team
than last season, particularly on offense where they’re putting up .965
points per possession, ninth best in the Big Sky.
Useless fun fact of the week: Southern Utah hasn’t played at home since Dec. 6.